In-Depth Look: “Recession of Choice” (Video)

April 14, 2008

Apr. 14, 2008. 08:39 AM EST

Analysis and Discussion with Lakshman Achuthan of Economic Cycle Research Institute

Transcript:
our next guest says elieves the slowing conomy is in gony ituation never seen before. is the managing artner conomic ycle research institute. > what do you ean es, different iew. any eople re glossing ver his will we look back t the antecedents of why we are ere it is bvious t is redit issue n a housing ubble. s recently s a ew weeks go, iterally, ecession as voidable ecause ll of his premature essimism we have had. his could e the orst orecast ever. here have een ecession forecasts ince 005 nd the effect of hat f saying ecession have ad usiness anagers playing verything close to their hests e talked urselves into t? it s more omplicated han that. veryone has ad ow nventories for years. hen, ad acceleration four- igh, ushing nventories low. his is mportant ecause over alf he ecessionary impulse of the decline that ccurs ith job osses, he roduction declines, it omes rom manufacturing ector. at was irtually bsent rom the cene in recent onths. policy aker nderstood this and could o anything, ny out of he box hing oost boost onsumption or a moment that immediately ifts roduction and orestalls firing. we would not be ere hree months ob losses. s a ecessionary piral. hat hy the ecession s a choice. m not saying did you did not have to pay the piper or the credit ebacle or he housing ouble. you ust, but you could be paying that iper s some breathing room. ecession will ake these hings worse. chovia is an xample. e is surprising everyone. these re mart people who were urprised by a pullback. at is a recession. he use easures e had not een since the great depression here ere a arge institutions trying o run interference? bsolutely, hat they have one n a recent weeks orthy of praise. hey id hat must be one. therwise here would have een a bigger problem. hey ave to make p for he act that they were ehind the curve which ade ll these hings worse. iming is key. point that he one person was king s that ou do ot lowly fall into ecession, you ump into it. the rompt timing f policy to vert it s so ritical. as a esult rom ot eing quick nough e will pay much more. erms f how o get out it. n the campaign rail here are a lot f proposals about bout how o spend money. what do you take bout advance etail ales? it is nly one month, but you oo ense etter than expected. - you aw2/ etter. > with asoline sales, hat ve where ge appliances fell. hen you add his up ith roader industry ales, you will till see a luggish if ot contracting economy. slice he conomy, almost two-thirds. usinesses are really ulling back. you ave to leave s with positive note. when does urn round? we’ robably a ew onths into this one. here’ s a oundation f all his liquidity oing in to boost the economy. ater down the oad we will ave to worry bout nflation, not yet. ed till has room to anage it. s there going e cut? > more than ou hink rom these guys. it is bout ighting the recession now. nflation eaked a nths into the ecession with he post- ecessions. >> thank you.

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Currency Cross-Check: Dollar Rise; Commodity Currencies; Southeast Asian Currency (Video)

April 14, 2008

Apr. 14, 2008. 12:20 AM EST

Dollar rises after G-7 officials signal alarm at pace of slump; G-7 signals concern on Dollar’s slide, weaker growth; Analysis by Sean Callow, Westpac Senior Currency Strategist

Transcript:
he dollar has isen the most in two weeks gainst the the uro, nd the ost n one week gainst the yen. he policy makers are concerned about he esults for arkets, his he iggest change in several years. ndex has allen 0%, he declines accelerated fter hey were down early % already. ere is he enior currency trategist, thank you for oining us oday. t is worth oting hat they did not ay this as the ollar, he dollar’ s slide has been very steady. his he concern? he eality as hat hat they were talking bout he oncerns are coming rom european side of his. ance and ermany are ushing this very ard, he united kingdom n the nd, he rench and germans got their way. e euro has ad ps and owns, but verall this ot just olatility hat eople are concerned bout, here level of this. ou now, hey ot mpletely othered about this. dministration has een a few enefits from his, exports are increasing. s there any hance f a coordinated upport for the dollar? this s down the way. verybody is ery xcited about getting involved in the currency arkets hey were ery ands-off he year 000, here were sked to join n the market intervention. ey were very half- arted about his, do not hink this articula ealistic at some times. long s they etain the stance on interest ates, nd the fed funding rate is ower, they are ossibly ust throwing oney way. hat oes this uggest about e dollar and its decline? aw he dollar coming wound, ill we ave declines over the next few months? here will be a queeze e dollar out here, e have seen this n asia. do ot hink his hanges much his, ecause the hreat is not very angible t this time. hese really do ome together in avor of a turnaround. the short-term orecast what will happen? we re ittle bit negative the uro, rom a physician in san. ositioning tand. ositioning tandpoint. his ill e at he 154 level. will ee his - if anage hrough this eek, can et through his earnings eport, ithout ny great urprises, his is till a little it too reliant peculative purchasing. > what do you think about he other currencies? hink his has been hanging in in the past few eeks, ecause tory on the commodities. hese ave been very supportive. therwise, hey have een doing away ith the foundations, ith omestic story. ousing finance numbers are much ower, nd he credit runch seems to take its oll the housing sector. he speculation he rate hey did ot know if his will happen this ear, ut there ill e a high volatility. his ay ndermine oth these currencies. hat s true for australia ore rue for new zealand. here may be ess commodities pport here as support. here as 0% rop n home sales. hey are ooking t a ery weak housing ector, nd there ome isappointing umbers in new zealand. ome reas - this is orking very ell, till refer the ustralian dollar. > what bout the singapore dollar? onetary uthority nd the rate he singapore dollar his is urging since last quarter. here s a strong ebound, him. with a greater hreat for he policy makers. here may u.s. slowdown. hey are going ack o the robust levels. he are isting his, nd there greater epreciation this overall. > thank you ery uch hat. he senior currency trategist estpac ince the civil war ave ainland hina and aiwan poken, we will find ut hy there may be a ismal summer head

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European Earnings & Equity Strategy; Outlook For Philips; Outlook For Global Currencies; Earnings & Global Economy (Video)

April 14, 2008

Apr. 14, 2008. 01:52 AM EST

G-7 downgrades outlook for world economy, anticipates weaker economic growth; Dollar rises after G-7 officials signal alarm at pace of slump; Analysis by Stephen Pope of Cantor Fitzgerald Europe

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G-7 & Forex Markets; G-7 & Financial Stability Forum (Video)

April 14, 2008

Apr. 14, 2008. 01:12 AM EST

Analysis by Christine Lagarde, French Finance Minister; Analysis by Simon Derrick of Bank of New York Mellon

Transcript:

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Currencies Volatility & Global Economy (Video)

April 14, 2008

Apr. 14, 2008. 12:15 AM EST

Dollar rises against Euro, Yen after G-7 raise concern about currencies; Rupiah weakens with Peso as rice feeds asian inflation surge; Zhou says market dominates Chinese Yuan exchange rate; Analysis by Aaron Pan of Bloomberg News

Transcript:
hich rice increases? hese re ifferent stages. re definitely anting o rely n the pricing mechanism. e was speaking ne f our reporters. here re oncerns bout slide he dollar and olatility, now talk aron an. his has ot een ll hat all the volatile. - all that the olatile - all that olatile re waiting to ee if there is going to e any kind of tervention, e’ re doing this ooking forward. e want to ee if this s a sign of things to come. > we will have ome nalysis, in the next few minutes. et’ ook his, e have some olatility rom he rice eating countries. hat is appening here? ith hese currencies for southeast sia, we hem at high not seen in several ears, and he government’ s and he central banks are also sing his to control inflation. hey are concerned hat his ould rise ecord involving other commodities as ell, hey may be pulling out of this. > and a comment about this the interest rates e were talking bout he arket laying a bigger role in he alue the yuan. aid this would dangerous for the exchange ate not to eflect on the economy. hould be appier hat market is determining more of the movement. lso ave the nderlying currency appreciating. his has to be seen. > thank you very uch for that. have aid, e will ind out a little bit ore bout what is going o be coming p, ill there be ny ind of ction at any time? ill ind out more bout his after the break. him.

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China’s Currency & Economy (Video)

April 14, 2008

Apr. 14, 2008. 12:11 AM EST

Analysis by Zhou Xiaochuan, People’s Bank of China Governor

Transcript:
hose re the economic tatistics, et out n thursday. e will ave much more ata, ncluding sset investments. his ill be coming up this week. hinese central ank chief says that interest ates re best tools or maintaining stable growth. hey said hat there till room or ending and deposit ates o go forward. ave already decided look nto reform. e are ontinuing ork with lexibility, ealing with the current situation. re also dealing ith the yen appreciation. believe hat his is a kind - this is orrecting he global imbalance. elieve hat we o these things ccording o our own conomic ituation and our own conomic analysis. ome f these are related he anti-inflation policy. cause hina is a ery large untry, e are ighly dependent on the exchange ate for eaching the inflation target. what bout he interest rates? re talking bout he health the ature of he chinese apital market his is of concern. at can we xpect to ee? ill there be i ise n the reserve ratios? here is oom hat they are ing for the interest ates, think many people nderstand this very well. ut in the ecent ime, re needing to bserve e have to bserve he interest rate olicy, nd what is appening in rope ecause verything be working ogether ust also look o the ituation decide hich nstruments nd elp the current tuation ome to a good end. robably the anti-inflation policy ombination oth of these measures. ou are in avor f hich rice increases? hese re ifferent stages. re definitely anting o rely n the pricing mechanism. e was speaking ne f our reporters. here re oncerns bout slide he dollar and olatility, now talk aron an. his has ot een ll hat all the volatile. - all that the olatile - all that olatile re waiting to ee if there is going to e any kind of tervention, e’ re doing this

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UK rice price doubles (Video)

April 11, 2008

The price of rice has soared as demand outstrips supply, putting pressure on UK Indian restaurants.

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Pre Market U.K.

April 11, 2008

04/11/08 What will likely impact the next trading session.

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BoE cuts rate, ECB holds (Video)

April 11, 2008

* BoE cuts interest rate by .25 points to 5.0 percent* ECB holds rate at 4.0 percent eyeing inflation* Alitalia protesters make a splash in Rome* Alitalia protesters make a splash in Rome

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US Dollar Trades at Record Low Against the Euro (Video)

April 10, 2008

04/10/08 With traders waiting news on the European Central Bank’s Euro-zone forecast, the US dollar hit an all-time low against the euro at $1.5912 per euro in overnight trading.

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