In-Depth Look: “Recession of Choice” (Video)
April 14, 2008
Apr. 14, 2008. 08:39 AM EST
Analysis and Discussion with Lakshman Achuthan of Economic Cycle Research Institute
Transcript:
our next guest says elieves the slowing conomy is in gony ituation never seen before. is the managing artner conomic ycle research institute. > what do you ean es, different iew. any eople re glossing ver his will we look back t the antecedents of why we are ere it is bvious t is redit issue n a housing ubble. s recently s a ew weeks go, iterally, ecession as voidable ecause ll of his premature essimism we have had. his could e the orst orecast ever. here have een ecession forecasts ince 005 nd the effect of hat f saying ecession have ad usiness anagers playing verything close to their hests e talked urselves into t? it s more omplicated han that. veryone has ad ow nventories for years. hen, ad acceleration four- igh, ushing nventories low. his is mportant ecause over alf he ecessionary impulse of the decline that ccurs ith job osses, he roduction declines, it omes rom manufacturing ector. at was irtually bsent rom the cene in recent onths. policy aker nderstood this and could o anything, ny out of he box hing oost boost onsumption or a moment that immediately ifts roduction and orestalls firing. we would not be ere hree months ob losses. s a ecessionary piral. hat hy the ecession s a choice. m not saying did you did not have to pay the piper or the credit ebacle or he housing ouble. you ust, but you could be paying that iper s some breathing room. ecession will ake these hings worse. chovia is an xample. e is surprising everyone. these re mart people who were urprised by a pullback. at is a recession. he use easures e had not een since the great depression here ere a arge institutions trying o run interference? bsolutely, hat they have one n a recent weeks orthy of praise. hey id hat must be one. therwise here would have een a bigger problem. hey ave to make p for he act that they were ehind the curve which ade ll these hings worse. iming is key. point that he one person was king s that ou do ot lowly fall into ecession, you ump into it. the rompt timing f policy to vert it s so ritical. as a esult rom ot eing quick nough e will pay much more. erms f how o get out it. n the campaign rail here are a lot f proposals about bout how o spend money. what do you take bout advance etail ales? it is nly one month, but you oo ense etter than expected. - you aw2/ etter. > with asoline sales, hat ve where ge appliances fell. hen you add his up ith roader industry ales, you will till see a luggish if ot contracting economy. slice he conomy, almost two-thirds. usinesses are really ulling back. you ave to leave s with positive note. when does urn round? we’ robably a ew onths into this one. here’ s a oundation f all his liquidity oing in to boost the economy. ater down the oad we will ave to worry bout nflation, not yet. ed till has room to anage it. s there going e cut? > more than ou hink rom these guys. it is bout ighting the recession now. nflation eaked a nths into the ecession with he post- ecessions. >> thank you.
Currency Cross-Check: Dollar Rise; Commodity Currencies; Southeast Asian Currency (Video)
April 14, 2008
Apr. 14, 2008. 12:20 AM EST
Dollar rises after G-7 officials signal alarm at pace of slump; G-7 signals concern on Dollar’s slide, weaker growth; Analysis by Sean Callow, Westpac Senior Currency Strategist
Transcript:
he dollar has isen the most in two weeks gainst the the uro, nd the ost n one week gainst the yen. he policy makers are concerned about he esults for arkets, his he iggest change in several years. ndex has allen 0%, he declines accelerated fter hey were down early % already. ere is he enior currency trategist, thank you for oining us oday. t is worth oting hat they did not ay this as the ollar, he dollar’ s slide has been very steady. his he concern? he eality as hat hat they were talking bout he oncerns are coming rom european side of his. ance and ermany are ushing this very ard, he united kingdom n the nd, he rench and germans got their way. e euro has ad ps and owns, but verall this ot just olatility hat eople are concerned bout, here level of this. ou now, hey ot mpletely othered about this. dministration has een a few enefits from his, exports are increasing. s there any hance f a coordinated upport for the dollar? this s down the way. verybody is ery xcited about getting involved in the currency arkets hey were ery ands-off he year 000, here were sked to join n the market intervention. ey were very half- arted about his, do not hink this articula ealistic at some times. long s they etain the stance on interest ates, nd the fed funding rate is ower, they are ossibly ust throwing oney way. hat oes this uggest about e dollar and its decline? aw he dollar coming wound, ill we ave declines over the next few months? here will be a queeze e dollar out here, e have seen this n asia. do ot hink his hanges much his, ecause the hreat is not very angible t this time. hese really do ome together in avor of a turnaround. the short-term orecast what will happen? we re ittle bit negative the uro, rom a physician in san. ositioning tand. ositioning tandpoint. his ill e at he 154 level. will ee his - if anage hrough this eek, can et through his earnings eport, ithout ny great urprises, his is till a little it too reliant peculative purchasing. > what do you think about he other currencies? hink his has been hanging in in the past few eeks, ecause tory on the commodities. hese ave been very supportive. therwise, hey have een doing away ith the foundations, ith omestic story. ousing finance numbers are much ower, nd he credit runch seems to take its oll the housing sector. he speculation he rate hey did ot know if his will happen this ear, ut there ill e a high volatility. his ay ndermine oth these currencies. hat s true for australia ore rue for new zealand. here may be ess commodities pport here as support. here as 0% rop n home sales. hey are ooking t a ery weak housing ector, nd there ome isappointing umbers in new zealand. ome reas - this is orking very ell, till refer the ustralian dollar. > what bout the singapore dollar? onetary uthority nd the rate he singapore dollar his is urging since last quarter. here s a strong ebound, him. with a greater hreat for he policy makers. here may u.s. slowdown. hey are going ack o the robust levels. he are isting his, nd there greater epreciation this overall. > thank you ery uch hat. he senior currency trategist estpac ince the civil war ave ainland hina and aiwan poken, we will find ut hy there may be a ismal summer head
European Earnings & Equity Strategy; Outlook For Philips; Outlook For Global Currencies; Earnings & Global Economy (Video)
April 14, 2008
Apr. 14, 2008. 01:52 AM EST
G-7 downgrades outlook for world economy, anticipates weaker economic growth; Dollar rises after G-7 officials signal alarm at pace of slump; Analysis by Stephen Pope of Cantor Fitzgerald Europe
Currencies Volatility & Global Economy (Video)
April 14, 2008
Apr. 14, 2008. 12:15 AM EST
Dollar rises against Euro, Yen after G-7 raise concern about currencies; Rupiah weakens with Peso as rice feeds asian inflation surge; Zhou says market dominates Chinese Yuan exchange rate; Analysis by Aaron Pan of Bloomberg News
Transcript:
hich rice increases? hese re ifferent stages. re definitely anting o rely n the pricing mechanism. e was speaking ne f our reporters. here re oncerns bout slide he dollar and olatility, now talk aron an. his has ot een ll hat all the volatile. - all that the olatile - all that olatile re waiting to ee if there is going to e any kind of tervention, e’ re doing this ooking forward. e want to ee if this s a sign of things to come. > we will have ome nalysis, in the next few minutes. et’ ook his, e have some olatility rom he rice eating countries. hat is appening here? ith hese currencies for southeast sia, we hem at high not seen in several ears, and he government’ s and he central banks are also sing his to control inflation. hey are concerned hat his ould rise ecord involving other commodities as ell, hey may be pulling out of this. > and a comment about this the interest rates e were talking bout he arket laying a bigger role in he alue the yuan. aid this would dangerous for the exchange ate not to eflect on the economy. hould be appier hat market is determining more of the movement. lso ave the nderlying currency appreciating. his has to be seen. > thank you very uch for that. have aid, e will ind out a little bit ore bout what is going o be coming p, ill there be ny ind of ction at any time? ill ind out more bout his after the break. him.
With US in crisis, global economy in peril: IMF
April 9, 2008
The global economic outlook is becoming increasingly grim as the United States appears unable to escape recession from a housing meltdown whose effects are still spreading, the IMF said Wednesday. Global expansion is set to slow to 3.7 percent in 2008…
Rising Commodities to Hit Consumers (Video)
April 9, 2008
Kevin Kerr, an analyst at Resource Trader Alert, talks with MarketWatch’s Kelsey Hubbard about the ripple effect of rising commodity prices. (April 9).
Crude oil flirts with record (Video)
April 9, 2008
Citigroup is close to selling $12 billion in leveraged loans and bonds, according to sources familiar with the matter.Boeing pushed back the delivery date for its 787 Dreamliner jumbo jet for the third time.Conway Gittens reports from New York.Conway Gittens reports from New York.
Oil Hits All-Time High Trading Price on NYMEX (Video)
April 9, 2008
04/09/08 After news of a weakening dollar combined with an unexpected report of a drop in crude inventories, US light-sweet crude traded at an all-time high of $112.21 per barrel and settled at an all-time high of $111.83 per barrel.
US Dollar Drops on Gloomy Federal Reserve Minutes Release (Video)
April 9, 2008
04/09/08 The US dollar fell against both the euro and yen this morning upon news that the released minutes of March’s Federal Reserve meeting revealed that the economy still isn’t out of the hole and that further rate cuts may ensue if necessary.
WaMu worries push stocks lower (Video)
April 8, 2008
The Federal Reserve’s minutes show serious concerns about the US economy and inflation, and indicate they are not ruling out a severe downturn in the US economy. Bobbi Rebell reports.The Federal Reserve’s minutes show serious concerns about the US economy and inflation, and indicate they…
Recent Posts
- UK inflation ‘could top 4%’
- In-Depth Look: “Recession of Choice” (Video)
- Currency Cross-Check: Dollar Rise; Commodity Currencies; Southeast Asian Currency (Video)
- European Earnings & Equity Strategy; Outlook For Philips; Outlook For Global Currencies; Earnings & Global Economy (Video)
- G-7 & Forex Markets; G-7 & Financial Stability Forum (Video)
- Currencies Volatility & Global Economy (Video)
- China’s Currency & Economy (Video)
- UK rice price doubles (Video)
- Pre Market U.K.
- BoE cuts rate, ECB holds (Video)
- US Dollar Trades at Record Low Against the Euro (Video)
- Bank of England cuts interest rates to 5% (Video)
- Japan stocks falls, China region climbs (Video)
- With US in crisis, global economy in peril: IMF
- Rising Commodities to Hit Consumers (Video)
Try A Free $100K Account @ ForexClub!
-
Archives
